Summary:

In the first half of 2017, domestic cotton prices oscillated and went flat. The price on July 24 was 15,903 yuan per ton, which was a slight increase of 0.68% from the beginning of the year, basically maintaining the same level. This year the state-owned cotton round has sold 2,080,500 tons as of July 28. The transaction rate is 67.87%. At present, the State Reserve cotton inventory is about 5.6 million tons. The second half of the State Bank's cotton turnover rate was slightly lower than the first half, and the transaction price increased first and then decreased. According to a comprehensive calculation, the total amount of reserve cotton inventories and rotations is currently close to 4 million tons, and the demand for downstream textile enterprises can be met before the listing of Xinmian. The supply is still loose.

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The cotton price difference between inside and outside is narrow and wide since the beginning of the year, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate with supply. Before May, outer cotton rose sharply due to the supply of phased cotton (15065, -15.00, -0.10%), and the spread narrowed continuously. With the US Department of Agriculture increasing production forecasts, cotton prices have been adjusted back, and its latest forecast in July again raised the 2016/17 global cotton production by 121,000 tons. The cotton trend continues to weaken, and the price difference has reached 1110 as of July 21. Yuan / ton.

China and the United States raised their domestic cotton demand forecasts, the supply and demand gap narrowed, and the inventory consumption rate exceeded expectations. The US Department of Agriculture raised its estimated consumption to 8.165 million tons in the latest forecast in July, with a supply and demand gap of 10.548 million tons. The supply and demand gap is forecast to reach 8.578 million tons in 2017/18, and the decline rate is faster than previously expected, mainly due to the rapid inventory inventories. Decline and downstream recovery led to growth in cotton consumption exceeding expectations. The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China also increased its estimated 2016/17 cotton consumption by 100,000 tons to 7.79 million tons in July. Ending stocks will be reduced by 100,000 tons to 9.13 million tons.

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The overall price of yarn increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2017, the average price of the four yarns rose by 23.15%, 22.33%, 14.06%, and 14.37% year-on-year respectively. The proportion of domestic yarn production increased. In the first half of 2017, domestic yarn production was 13.972 million tons, which was flat compared to the same period of last year. The cumulative net import of cotton yarn was 760,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.69%. At the same time, the output of fabrics also increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2017, the output of domestic fabrics reached 34.6 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The overall downstream demand picked up, and the production of various links in the industry chain became increasingly strong.

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Downstream sales were weak recovery. On the export side, the export of 2017H1 textile yarns, fabrics and products was US$53.120 billion, up 2.17% year-on-year, and 3.90 pct higher than the growth rate of the same period last year. Garment exports totaled US$70.933 billion in the first six months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, which was narrower than the 2016 decline of 8.9 pct. Domestic sales. In the first half of 2017, sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles above designated size were 717.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.22%; sales of apparel were 506.32 billion yuan, an increase of 4.64% year-on-year. The digesting capacity of the apparel sector increased year-on-year. The inventory at the end of 2017Q1 of the 16 companies totaled RMB22.499 billion, representing an increase of 12.13% year-on-year, of which the inventory turnover rate of the ten companies in one quarter improved year-on-year. Overall, the demand for the upstream cotton spinning sector was positively correlated.

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