Follow the wind to grow vegetables in the "expensive" family

"Two pieces of new garlic!" Five words written on the cardboard board of a community in Fengtai District, Beijing. The summer solstice is coming, but unlike the hot summer weather, the price of garlic, which was once bullish, suddenly turned and turned down.

Not only garlic, this year, many agricultural products prices have fallen sharply. For example, the garlic plunged in the previous period, and the situation of throwing the trench directly occurred. In May, the price of the egg fell to a new low of ten years, and the farmer had no choice but to lose the well. Cooked eggs as feed; the price of cabbage and onion is not enough for harvesting costs. Some farmers prefer to hire forklifts and shovel them off the ground, and they are not willing to harvest them... What is the price of agricultural products?

"Garlic you ç‹ " becomes "Garlic, you fall down"

"Now there are more than two garlics. Recently, I will put a few more cold dishes!" Talking about the recent price of vegetables, Ms. Wang said that with the price of more than 10 pieces in the first half of this year, and more than four times in this year. In contrast, garlic has now changed from the previous "noble dishes" to "home cooking." Last month, when the new garlic was just down, Ms. Wang even bought several large bags for pickling sugar garlic.

China Securities Journal reporter checked yesterday's Beijing "food basket" Beijing Xinfadi agricultural product wholesale market information learned that on June 19, the average price of ordinary garlic per kg is 2.55 yuan, the average price of ordinary new garlic per kg is 1.7 yuan.

However, compared with the current price of garlic, the overall price of garlic has remained high in the first half of this year. Netizens once called garlic as the “nobility in the dish” and “a price of more than a dozen pounds. I was thinking when I was eating garlic. "Garlic you 狠"! However, recently netizens changed their mouth to say that "garlic you 狠" has become "garlic you fell."

According to Zhuo Chuang information data, at present, the reference price of “Chinese garlic capital” Shandong Jinxiang County red skin mixed grade garlic is 2.35 yuan / kg, compared with the highest price of 9.60 yuan / kg in the first half of this year, the price fell 75.52%.

Not only that, since the new garlic was launched this year, the price of new garlic has opened lower and lower, and the price of Henan new garlic once fell below 0.8 yuan/kg. Since June, with the increase in the dryness of new garlic and the gathering of popularity, prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. According to the data of the International Garlic Trade Network, at present, the mainstream transaction price of red-skinned hybrid garlic in the “China Garlic” Shandong Jinxiang County is in the range of 2.0-2.5 yuan/kg, while in the same period last year, the Jinxiang-producing area The mainstream transaction price was in the range of 4.0-4.5 yuan/kg, and the price dropped by 50% compared with the same period.

The above-mentioned food stall owners analyzed that the recent rapid and sharp drop in the price of garlic was mainly related to the large-scale market launch of new garlic. That is to say, the rapid decline in the average selling price of new garlic drove the old garlic to lower the price.

Contrary to the pleasure of consumers, farmers in the garlic-producing areas are now full of sadness. "A few days ago, even no one was willing to accept the garlic, so I had to throw the garlic to the roadside and the river. Now although the garlic is rich, the price has not been raised." Garlic planting county - the villagers of Zhongmu County He said. After experiencing the low price of garlic at the beginning of May, the price of new garlic has not been sold, and the hearts of the garlic farmers are even more cool, and they do not feel the joy of harvest.

Blind follow-up planting

"This year's increase in garlic supply is the 'culprit' causing a sharp drop in garlic prices in the near future." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Cui Xiaona said that last year, domestic garlic was severely reduced, and farmers sold garlic at a higher price. Therefore, last year's autumn planting season, farmers carried out A large number of expansions, coupled with the smooth weather after planting, made this year's new production, the majority of domestic production increased. With the increase in area and single production, the total output of garlic increased by 34.6% compared with last year, which led to a decline in the price of garlic listed this year.

At the beginning of 2016, due to the impact of the Great Cold Wave, the price of garlic was soared due to the decline in frozen production. Coupled with the amount of garlic traded to control the market, the market price of garlic continues to be high fever. In this situation, the garlic farmers blindly followed the wind, resulting in a bumper harvest this year, but the price fell to freezing point.

In addition, another reason for the decline in the price of new garlic is the loss of the previous garlic. Li Jifeng, founder of the International Garlic Trade Network, believes that when the garlic market was listed this year, the price was low, which created a panic for the garlic farmers. As a result, the new garlic was listed, the garlic farmers were piled up and sold, and the price fell.

Earlier, when the price of garlic smashed, some of the production areas even appeared to be free to send garlic, throwing garlic and throwing it in the field trench.

Li Jifeng said that the storage and storage companies were on the sidelines and the enthusiasm for opening and closing was not high, which was one of the reasons for the recent drop in garlic prices.

In the face of the price of a big diving, the garlic farmers are also very entangled. "This year, garlic has not only expanded in large areas, but also has a bumper harvest. The market supply is sufficient, and the price will not be too high. We have to deal with it better, and save every day to worry about the price of garlic." Laojiao said.

"Garlic you are really gone"?

"In the future, the factors that lead to changes in garlic prices mainly include factors such as supply and demand, capital popularity, and weather factors, macro policies, etc." Cui Xiaona said.

Li Jifeng believes that the main factor guiding the change of garlic price in the future is the relationship between supply and demand, which is reflected in the production process is the size of the planting area, the amount of production, and the actual demand of the society. The short-term factors affecting price fluctuations are often psychological factors, which are reflected in the actual production is the psychological expectation game between garlic farmers and garlic traders.

Crack the "high yield and no harvest" cycle

In addition to garlic and garlic, many agricultural products have fallen sharply this year. For example, the laying hens industry has lost more than 30 billion yuan in the first five months of this year. If broiler losses are added, the industry loses more than 40 billion yuan. Once fell to a new low of ten years, less than 2 yuan / kg, some farmers even throw eggs, or cooked eggs as feed; cabbage, onion head prices are not enough to harvest costs, some farmers prefer to hire forklifts It shovel the ground and is not willing to harvest.

In the process of “roller coaster” for agricultural product prices, excessive price increases often cause consumers to complain, while excessive price declines will ruin farmers.

According to Lin Guofa, an agricultural data analyst at Breck, the price of agricultural products plummeted, while land rents, fertilizers, and seed prices went up, which also led to a sharp decline in agricultural crop yields and even losses.

Lin Guofa further said that in recent years, there have been three main factors in the collapse of agricultural products prices: first, the level of production technology has improved, and the yield level has increased; secondly, consumption has been sluggish; thirdly, the weather conditions in recent years have been generally good, and no major disasters have increased. The output of agricultural products.

In these years, the repeated surges in agricultural products have been the market law, but they also reflect the current situation of market information asymmetry.

In terms of planting, Cui Xiaona suggested that farmers should understand the market in many aspects, especially the root cause of price fluctuations. When determining the cultivation, it is not possible to increase or decrease the number in a large amount, and reasonable planning should be carried out according to the changes in the market and its own situation.

"The cyclical price fluctuation of agricultural products is a common topic. To solve the fluctuation of agricultural product prices, we must start from multiple angles." Li Jifeng believes that local governments should increase planting plan guidance to avoid blind expansion of single agricultural products; relevant departments jointly establish private agricultural products to balance agricultural products. Save funds, stabilize prices, etc. As a farmer, in the absence of professional guidance and fixed storage channels, do not blindly follow the trend, and arrange crop varieties according to local conditions.

In addition, futures tools are also expected to become a safe haven for farmers. In recent years, with the increasing scale of agricultural product cultivation, the financial awareness of practitioners has been continuously enhanced, while the warehousing industry's ability and technology have reached a high level. The conditions for the introduction of agricultural futures have gradually matured and the necessity has gradually increased. Some insiders said that the listing of new varieties in China's futures market in 2017 is expected to usher in a "big year." At present, Apple Futures, Hong Kong Futures, Red Date Futures, Tomato Futures, Raisin Futures, and even coffee futures, hog futures, and beef futures have all become highly anticipated.